[유효상 칼럼] 왜 달러 인덱스가 떨어져도 원화는 약세일까

ȿ ܰ濵

ݳ Ŷ, ¥İƼ, , Ÿ Ƹ޸ī ԰Ÿ ö. ޷ ȯ ߴٴ . ȭ ֱ ֿ䱹 ȭʹ ޸ ༼ ġ ϰ ִ.

Ʈ ޷ å ̱ ޷ȭ ġ Ÿ '̱ ޷ ε(U.S. Dollar Index, DXY)' 1 5 109.8 9 15 97.5 11% ̻ ϶ߴ. ̴ 50 ū ϶̸, 2010 ۵ 15Ⱓ ֱⰡ ̴. ĸ 2026 10% ߰ ϶ ɼ ִٰ ߴ. Ʈ δ ҵ漼 üϰ, ÿ پ ޷ å ̱ Ȱ ڸ â ڸ ϰ ִ.

޷ ε 1971 8 15 ̱ ݺ 극ư ü , ÷ ϴ ޷ ġ ϱ 1973 Fed . ޷ ġ 1944 극ư ü 1½ 35޷ ƾ. DXY 1973 3 100 Ͽ, Ը ũų ȭġ ֿ 6 ȭ , Ϻ , Ŀ и, ij ޷, ũγ, Ը ޸Ͽ ߴ. ȭ 57.6%, ȭ 13.6%, Ŀȭ 11.9%, ij ޷ 9.1%, ũγ 4.2%, 3.6% ̸, 1999 ο ȭ ԵǾ ѹ ٲ , ʱ ״ ϰ ִ.

޷ ε Fed ۼϿ ǥѴ. Ͽ ޷ ġ ° ϶ ľ ִ. ޷ ε 90̶ 100 10 ̴ ޷ ġ 10% ٰ ִ. ݴ ޷ ε 110̶, 1973 3 ޷ ġ 10% ߴٴ ̴.

޷ ε ȯ ݸ, ǰ ǰ ۷ι ݿ ش. ޷ ȭ ǰ ־ ޷ ε Ǹ ǰ ǰ ϰų ϶ϴ ´. Ϲ ޷ ε ֽĽ Բ ǰ ü ༼ Ѵ. ݴ , , ,  ޷ ŷǴ ǰ δ.

׷ ޷ȭ ġ ϶ߴ ñ ְ, ݸ ϰ ʾҴ. 1980 ޷ 10% ̻ ϶ ʴ ȩ ʿµ, ְ äݸ 帧 ο ޶. ȭ ȭ 밡 ޷ ༼ ̲ ְ ¼ Ÿ, ȭ Ȯ밡 ݵ ְ . äݸ ޷ DZ⺸ ο ϶ Ȥ ߴ.

޷ ε ū ߻ ũ ų . 1970 Ĺ, ̱ Ǿ ÿ Fed ̾ Ŀ ݸ ª Ⱓ 21% λߴ. ׷ ޷ ε ְ 164.7 ö. ݴ ޷ ε 70.6 ϶ߴ. ó ޷ ε ȸ ݿ ġ ߻ Ȳ ݿѴٴ Ư¡ ִ. ħ ϴ ̴.

޷ ༼ 帧 Ȯ ¿ ޸ ȭ ġ ༼ ̴. ޷ ε 6 ֿ䱹 ȭ ϰ ֱ , ޷ ε ٰ ؼ ε Ե ʴ ȭ ġ ڵ ϴ ƴϴ. ׷ ̱ ΰ ޷ ༼ å ִ Ȳ ȭ ٸ ຸ ̴ ۷ι 帧 ϰ ִٴ ǹ̴. ݱ DXY -޷ ȯ 0.9 踦 , ֱ Ŀø(Decoupling, Żȭ) ȭǰ ִ. ⿡ ޷ȭ ༼ δٰ ؼ ޷ ȯ ϶ ٰ̾ ϱ .

̱ ݸ ϳ Ȯ븦 ޷ ༼ ϴ, ۷ι 忡 ũ(ߵ , ̡ ) ȮǼ Ŀ ڻ νĵǴ '̱ ޷' ȣϰ ȴ. , ޷ ༼ ǥ δ ޷ 帧 ǰų, ȭ ڱ ѵDZ ȯ ٸ ִ.

ȭ , ѱ ݴ, ε Ŀø ִٰ мϰ ִ. ȭ ѱ ߱ ȭ 帧 ޴´. ȭ ޷ٴ ȭ 'Ŀø(Coupling)'ǰ ִٴ ̴. ޷ ε ϶ϴ ȭ ȭ Ͽ ༼ ִٴ ̴. ݳ ޷-ȭ ȯ ʿ ޷ ༼ Ծ ȭ , ߱ Ҿ ι ȭ ȭ å ȭ ༼ Ƽ. Ư ̱ ΰ ϱ ǵ ȭ ġ ߰ ִ ̴.

ο ڵ 츮 ε ؿ ڰ ϰ ִ ͵ ȭ ༼ ߿ . ۳ ѱ ؿ ֽ Ը ִ븦 ߴ. ؿ ڷ ޷ 䰡 þ ִ. ƿ﷯ ϱ ̱ ų ü ø ʿ û ޷ 䵵 ȭ ༼ ִ.

̱ ݸ ȭ ༼ Ѹϰ ִ. ̱ ݸ 4.50%, ѱ 2.50% رݸ 2% Ʈ . ݸ Ŭ, ܱ ں ̱ ũ. ̱ ä ͷ , ȯ ص ̱ ڻ ŷ̱ ̴. ѱ ݸ øų ̱ ξ ȭ ̴.

,  ޷ ϶ϸ ϴ ̱ , ѱ ޷ 䰡 ϰ ȴ. ü ȯ ϸ ޷ Ǯ ʰ ִ ͵ ȭ ༼ ŵ ִ ̴. Ϲ ȭ ġ ϶ϸ ݰ ⿡ ̶ ־. ſ ޸ 溸 Ŀ ִ. ̡ б￡ ۷ι ޸ Ҿ, ̱ ü ġ й ȿ ̰, Ͽ ε ֱ ̴.

ް ۷ι , ѱ ִ. ׷ ڵ 忡 籹 ݵ ذå 䱸ϰ ִ. θ ִ ȭå ñ .

'dz찡 ĥ ߿ Ű ʴ ̴' ݾ ܾ .